報告承辦單位:數學與統計學院
報告題目: 疾病傳播動力學與最終流行規模分析
報告人姓名: Yuan Yuan ( 袁沅）
報告人所在單位:加拿大紐芬蘭紀念大學
報告人職稱: 教授，博士生導師
報告時間:北京時間2021年5月27日（星期四）上午8：30-9:30
騰訊會議號碼:688 676 543
報告人簡介：袁沅教授 1984年于武漢大學獲得學士學位，1988年于中南大學獲得碩士學位，2002年于加拿大西安大略大學（University of Western Ontario）獲得博士學位。2002年榮獲NSERC（加拿大國家自然科學基金）資助在滑鐵盧大學(University of Waterloo)做短暫博士后研究，隨后于2002年9月起受聘于加拿大紐芬蘭紀念大學（Memorial University of Newfoundland）至今，現為該校數學與統計系終身正教授和博士生導師。袁教授主要研究方向包括非線性動力系統的穩定性及分支分析、時滯微分方程及其在神經網絡和生物數學等的應用、微分方程的符號及數值計算方法。現已在SIAM Journal of Applied Mathematics, Journal of Mathematical Biology, Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, Journal of Differential Equations, Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems等主要應用數學及生物數學雜志發表論文六十多篇。研究成果深受同行好評及引用，研究一直受到加拿大NSERC的資助。
摘要：We propose two compartment models to study the disease transmission dynamics, then apply the models to the current COVID-19 pandemic and to explore the potential impact of the interventions, and try to provide insights into the future health care demand. Starting with an SEAIQR model by combining the effect from exposure, asymptomatic and quarantine, then extending the model to the one with ages below and above 65 years old, and classify the infectious individuals according to their severity, we focus our analysis on each model with and without vital dynamics. In the models with vital dynamics, we study the dynamical properties including the global stability of the disease free equilibrium and the existence of endemic equilibrium, with respect to the basic reproduction number. Whereas in the models without vital dynamics, we address the final epidemic size rigorously, which is one of
the common but difficult questions regarding an epidemic. Finally, we apply our models to estimate the basic reproduction number and the final epidemic size of disease by using the data of COVID-19 conrmed cases in Canada and Newfoundland & Labrador province.
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